Patrick Patterson has trimmed his list to three schools. Unsurprisingly, they are Duke, Florida, and Kentucky. As of right now, he has given no indication of which team has a lead. It is not even certain if he is 100% certain where he wants to go yet.

He has stated that he will take this weekend to go over everything and make his final decision, and announce his choice next week. I have seen that he plans to announce on Monday and sign on Wednesday, and I have also seen that he will not announce until his signing on Wednesday. Either way, there is no more than a week to go.

Now the question is, where will he go? My gut has been saying all along that he is Florida bound, but my gut feelins is changing as this drags out. Now I feel like it will either be Duke or Kentucky, and my gut says Duke. That may be wishful thinking, but that's my gut feeling as of right now.

Tags: recruiting
Current Location: Greensboro, NC
Current Mood: hopeful

I plan on doing a 2007-08 season preview, but I plan to wait until next year's roster is finalized, as the season outlook changes dramatically based on whether Patrick Patterson is playing home games in Durham, Lexington, or Gainesville.

Unfortunately, there is very little news on that front. We do know that, barring a late end-run by UVA coach Dave Leitao, the in-home visits with the Patterson family are complete. Coach K, along with Johnny Dawkins and Chris Collins, had the last visit with Patterson and his parents Monday night. While I have no access to inside information, by all accounts it went fairly well. His mother was quoted as saying that they were excited about the visit. Patrick himself has said nothing, really.

I have to think that it's a good thing that K and co. had the last visit. We all know he is a great recruiter, and he does especially well with kids whose parents are heavily involved, as Patterson's are. As has been widely reported elsewhere, Patterson's mother seems to favor Kentucky, and his father seems to favor Duke. This falls in line with normal behavior, particularly with his mother wanting to keep her son as close to home as possible. (Lexington is only a 2 hour drive from Huntington, WV.)

Now, many sportwriters, as well as fans, consider FLorida the front-runner for Patterson. The question that has started to float around recently is, why? Patterson himself has said nothing to indicate any front-runner, in fact has stated that no one has a lead. I am beginning to question whether Florida has a lead on the race myself. Honestly, it simply doesn't make sense, on the face of it. Of what most consider his top three schools, Florida is the farthest away. Kentucky is closer than Durham, but Durham is much closer than Gainesville. (Lexington is 123 miles, or about 2 hours. Durham is 349 miles, or about 5.5 hours. Gainesville is 768 miles, or about 12 hours.) But, there are some other factors as well, that I think may have even greater bearing:

Florida has a good recruiting class coming in, an that includes Alex Tyus, a 6'-8" PF who, although ranked lower than Patterson, has similar size and plays a similar game, guaranteeing Patterson immediate competition at his spot. Kentucky has 6'-7.5" A.J. Stewart coming in, also lower ranked than Patterson, but still a very similar player. Duke has no player, either on the roster currently, or coming in next year, that has a similar skill-set to Patterson. Duke does have Zoubek, Thomas, and Singler, all 6'-8" or taller, but none of those players is a true "banger" like Patterson, and if he does come to Duke, there won't  be any competition for minutes because no one else can provide what he does to the team.

Then you have to look at next year. For a while, Duke's two main '08 prospects have been Greg Monroe and Drew Gordon. Both are listed as PF's, but they are very different players. Monroe is ranked as the top overall player in the '08 class. He has a skill-set very dissimilar to Patterson. Monroe likes to take the ball out to the perimeter and beat guys off the dribble. He has a good mid-range jumper, but lacks low block "banger" style ability. He is much more of a finesse player. Monroe could very easily start on the frontcourt along with Patterson for the 2008-09 season. (How nice would that frontcourt combo be?) Monroe has been offered a scholarship by Duke, mainly because his recruitment does not, in any real way, impact Patterson's.

Drew Gordon is a different story, however. He is very similar to Patterson in many respects. He is a good defender and rebounder, plays hard-nosed, back to the basket style ball. It is believed that if Duke does land Patterson, they will not get Gordon. It has loing been stated on many Duke message boards that the coaching staff should go ahead and offer Gordon, because waiting to see what is going to happen with Patterson is causing us to slip off of his radar. While this may or may not be true, I definitely think that the coaching staff is waiting to see what Patterson does before they decide to offer Gordon. After all, Coach K does not like to offer guys unless he feels there is a strong chance they will say yes. If they offer Gordon now, and then land Patterson, chances are high Gordon says no to Duke. 

To add to the mix, reports have recently come out that Duke has made another offer for a 2008 prospect, Elliott WIlliams. Elliott is listed as either a shooting guard, a point guard, or a combo guard, depending on where you look. (I should point out that the reports of his scholarship offer are unsubstanitiated at this point.) The fact that the coaching staff has (apparently) offered a guard for '08 could be an indicator of one of two things: A - Patterson is leaning towards Duke, just not publically. B - They are wanting to show Patterson how important he is to the team by not offering a second big man for '08.

Either way, in my (biased) opinion, I think Duke is the place for Patterson to go. Florida and Kentucky will both be rebuilding next year, with or without him. Duke, on the other hand, could legitimately make a Final 4 run with him on the team.

Tags: recruiting
Current Location: Greensboro, NC
Current Mood: optimistic

All Duke fans know, last year wasn't one of the great ones. There is a lot of blame for that flying around on message boards, so I thought I would take a moment and list some of the teams biggest problems from last year.

1: Inexperience

The coaches and playes will never use this as an excuse, but it has to be the forst topic in any discussion about last years team. It was probably the youngest team Coach K ever fielded. Just look at the numbers: No scolarship senior, the first time I can remember that happening in my 21 years of watching Duke Basketball. Only one scholarship junior, and he had never managed to play a whole season due to injuries. 4 scolarship sophomores, 2 of whom played major roles last year, one of whom redshirted due to medical issues, and one of whom had practically no PT his freshman year. 4 incoming freshmen don't add any experience to the mix, by definition they don't have any. So we have a team that, as a whole, has about 3.5 seasons worth of playing time experience.  (One each for Paulus and McRoberts, 2 half seasons for Nelson, and half a season for McClure.)

Again, we all know that the coaches wont use that as an excuse, but that's really, really, young. How many times this year  did Duke have a lead late in the second half, only to have the opponent come back and win? How many times, even in games they won, did they have a chance to nail the coffin shut on an opponent, but failed, giving them a chance to get back into the game?

One of the things experience does for you is it teaches you how to win. How to win the close games, and how to close out a blowout. Duke did not have that this year, and that is something that they desperately need to get back.

2: Injuries

Inexperience is far from the only issue they faced this year. Injuries probably played an even bigger part. We all knew about Paulus' injury to his foot, suffered the second day of practice. What we didn't know was the extent. When we found out after the season ended that he had surgery on his foot to repair a broken bone, it became clear that his injury was worse than we knew. We wrote off the first half of the season, saying that he just hadn't recovered fully yet. But Greg took a lot of heat in the second half of the season, particularly for his defense.A lot of people out there, myself included, owe Greg an apology. So this is me saying I'm sorry, and wishing Greg a speedy recovery from surgery, and a healthy and productive offseason.

Greg wasn't the only injured player, though. Many fans questioned how rare it was to see Marty Pocious on the floor, especially since he always seemed to bring a lot of energy and passion when he came into the game. Marty always made something happen when he was in, although it was a toss-up whether it would be a spectacular play, or a dribble off his foot out of bounds. But we forgave hum his exuberance, chalking it up to him wanting to make something happen in his rare opportunities. It wasn't until after the season, when his surgery was announced, that we realized he had even been injured. So here's wishing a speedy recovery, and a healthy and productive offseason for Marty.

But probably the biggest injury to the Blue Devils this year was Dave McClure. He didn't miss any games, but before he hyperextended his knee, he was getting a reputation for making big plays. He wasn't the biggest contributor as far as points and rebounds went, but he always came through in the clutch, which is why he earned the nickname "Big Play Dave". After his injury, he simply wasn't the same player. Here's hoping he gets the fire and passion back, because he was really starting to remind me of Shane Battier. He will never be the most talented guy out there, but he gives it his all, his heart and soul, and he brings that type of effort out in the other players around him.

3: Leadership

It was hard to decide what exactly to label the third area as. Duke does, and always will have, good leadership. But what I mean by this isn't coaching, but on court. Everyone expected this to be Josh McRoberts' team. He was supposed to be the leader, the go-to guy. But he played very passively, letting the game come to him, and playing a very pass-first style of play. He did not appear to want to be the man on this team, and that left a void, with no one on the team seeming to want to step up and be the go-to guy on the team. No one really wanted to be the guy to take the big shot. it was very apparent towards the end of close games that they simply didn't know where to go, or who to give the ball to. Hopefully, these issues will be resolved next year, and a clear and concise plan in place for close end-game scenarios.

There were, of course, other issues throughout the year, but I think these three sum up the biggest of them. The first one will take care of itself. Of the 9 scholarship players on the team this past year, 8 of them are returning next season. 1 senior, 3 juniors, 4 sophomores, and 3 freshmen (hopefully 4) sounds a lot better than the mix we had this year. Next year's team will have more experience, and more depth than this year's, which will address issues 1 and 2. The third issue may resolve itself in the form of Kyle Singler. We know that while K likes to give freshmen a year to really get into the system before leaning on them too heavily, we have seen enough instances of K inserting freshmen into the starting lineup, and making them integral parts of the team for me to believe he will do any less with Singler. And SIngler is a kid who looks like he wants the ball.

And having someone who wants the ball at cruch time could make all the difference.

Tags: last year
Current Location: Greensboro, NC
Current Mood: contemplative

Currently, Duke has three incoming freshmen signed for the coming season. Here is a brief rundown of each of them:

Taylor King:

A 4-star player out of California, Taylor is scout.com's 7th ranked small forward in this year's class. He is this year's Player of the Year in California, and is the state's 4th leading all-time scorer. Put simply, this kid can light it up from deep.

Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to have much more to his game right now, and to me seems to be a project. He is tall, 6'-7", but he doesn't have a lot of quickness, and will suffer if he tries to guard perimeter players. He may be able to play decent defense against a power forward, but in all honesty I think he may be a defensive liability in his first year or two at Duke. He does not appear to have the athletic ability needed to create his own shot, he is much more of a spot-up shooter. He is a good passer and shooter, but I think he will play very limited minutes next year, unless he shows more defensive ability than we've seen from him thus far.

Strengths: 3-point range, Mid-range game, Passing.
Weaknesses: Athleticism, Low-block scorer, Speed/Quickness

Nolan Smith:

Nolan is a 4-star player out of Oak Hill Academy, in Virginia. He is scout.com's 10th rated shooting guard in this year's class, although he is really more of a combo guard, capable of playing the point as well. Despite the low ratings, everything I have seen from this kid is good. He is quick and athletic, which is something Duke desperately needs on the perimeter. (Remember watching Scheyer try to guard Eric Maynor or Ty Lawson? That was painful, and that is where Smith will help out a lot.)

He is the son of Derek Smith, who played in the NBA, so he has good genes. He also has size 18 shoes, so he may grow beyond his current listing of 6'-2.5". He has an excellent offensive arsenal. He is able to penetrate and pull up for a mid-range jumper, or he can take it to the rim and finish with authority. (He had a nasty windmill dunk in the McDonald's All Star game.) He is also a good passer and plays tremendous defense. (Ty Lawson was his teammate last year at Oak Hill, so he already has experience defending against probably the quickest player in college today.) I am hopeful that we will see quite a bit of Nolan this year, as both a back-up for Greg Paulus, and maybe even some time at the shooting guard position, although there is a log-jam there on Duke's roster.

Strengths: Basketball IQ, Defensive Presence, Perimeter shot
Weaknesses: Finisher, Mid-Range game, Strength

Kyle Singler:

Get ready to love this kid. Ranked the top small forward by scout.com, and 4th overall, Kyle Singler is the complete package. He is listed at 6'-8", so he will see quite a bit of time defending the opponent's big men, (unless Duke signs Patrick Patterson.) While there are more explosive and flashy players in this year's class, Singler has been called this year's "most complete player". He has a very high basketball IQ, and lets the game come to him, rather than forcing the issue. He rarely makes mistakes, and always seems to know the right play to make. He has a good outside shot, and is quick and athletic enough to create his own shots. Defensively, I was worried about him, because he will be guarding opponent's bigs, but at the Jordan Classic, he played several minutes of "impressive" defense against Ohio State recruit Kosta Koufos, a legit 7-foot power forward (3rd ranked PF by scout.com), so that allays my fears somewhat.

My bottom line on Kyle is this. He is going to be the best player on this team the moment he sets foot on campus as a freshman. He may not lead the team in scoring this year, though I wouldn't be surprised if he did, but he will consistently be the one to step up and be a "go-to" guy down the stretch.

Strengths: Basketball IQ, Mid-Range game, Versatility
Weaknesses: Ability to create, Strength


**Note: The strengths and weaknesses listed here are from the scout.com profiles for these players, and do not necessarily reflect my personal opinion. For example, Kyle Singler can, and will, create.

Tags: freshmen
Current Location: Greensboro, NC

What better way to kick off this journal than with a subject near and dear to the hearts of Blue Devil Nation, Patrick Patterson.

Patterson is a 6' 8", 228 pound power forward, and is the top remaining unsigned player in this year's high school class. His school list has some heavy hitters on it, it consists of Florida, Duke, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and Wake Forest.

Patterson is ranked #15 by Rivals.com, and #11 by Scout.com

Here is the scouting report from Scout.com:  Gifted prospect who probably winds up being a versatile four man. Can pass with precision and knock down mid-range extended jumpers. Body built for rebounding. 

What makes Patterson so special? Well, he's exactly what Duke needs right now. He's a defensive force, and a terrific rebounder. While he's not the most athletic guy in the world, he is a good athlete. He has been compared to Shelden Wililams, as far as his body type goes, and he is more athletic than Shelden. If he does come to Duke, he will more than likely be a starter right away, and if not, he will still play very significant minutes.

Why is he still unsigned? Well, there are several different answers to that question. Patterson himself has always maintained that he wanted to take his time and make sure that he put himself in the best situation for himself and his family. There were rumors floating around that Patterson, along with fellow unsigned recruit Jai Lucas, were planning on holding a joint press conference before the McDonald's All Star game, to annouce they were signing with Kentucky. If that was indeed a plan, it fell through when Tubby Smith left Kentucky. Since then, Patterson has been even more close-mouthed than usual regarding his future, stating only that he plans to announce his decision on or just before the May 16th deadline.

Who still has a shot? Well, his official list is still Florida, Duke, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and Wake Forest. While no one truly knows for sure, depending on who you ask, you will get a short list of either Florida, Duke, and Kentucky, or Florida, Duke, and West Virginia, or Florida and Duke. Personally, I suspect that the last list is closest to the truth, although I am not 100% willing to rule out Kentucky or West Virginia. Patterson really liked Kentucky while Tubby Smith was there, and even though Tubby's departure hurt things there, Kentucky's new coach, Billy Gillespie, seems to be making up some of the ground that they lost. As far as West Virginia, if he goes there I will be very surprised, since he seems to already know that Bob Huggins isn't the most honest and ethical coach in the world, but it is his home state school.

In the end though, I think he will end up in either a Florida or Duke uniform next season. In the end, I think it will come down to the future of Florida coach Billy Donovan. Donovan already turned down Kentucky, but the big question now is whether he will turn down the NBA if it comes to call. There are several rumors swriling about Donovan to the NBA, and he has stated before that it is his dream to coach in the league. His stock right now is probably as high as it is ever going to get, and he is still young enough that if he does go, and fail, he can still come back to the college ranks to finish his career. With three weeks to go until the signing deadline, I think this is the major issue Patterson is watching to determine where he will go.

All in all, I really, really hope he chooses Duke. After all, even if Donovan comes back to Florida next year, there's no guarantee he will be there the year after. At Duke, Coach K is a constant. He's going nowhere. But, in the end, I fully expect Patterson to choose Florida.

Tags: recruiting
Current Location: Greensboro, NC

Welcome to my Duke Basketball Journal. This is going to be my spot to discuss any and everything to do with the Blue Devils. From game previews and reviews, to my thoughts and opinions, to recruiting, player profiles, and occasionally just bitching.

But don't come here thinking I have any sort of inside information about anything, because I don't. There are plenty of other places to go for that, like the premium sections at scout.com or rivals.com. The things I talk about here are going to fall into one of two categories:

     1: Public Knowledge

     2: Personal Opinion

I will do my best to differentiate between the two as I go, but it should usually be fairly obvious anyway. 

So, take this journal for what it's worth, and hopefully someone out there will find some enjoyment in it. Although I am really doing this just to have a place to talk about Duke hoops without cluttering up my friends journals.

Tags: welcome
Current Location: Greensboro, NC
Current Mood: cheerful